Let’s begin with the simple assumption that you will be watching all 14 Breeder’s Cup races this weekend. You will look at the program and will use some sort of system to make your wagers. You’ll look at odds, names of horses, jockeys, trainers, past performances and workouts. You may refer to a publication to aid you with your selections, but the case is clear; if you’re betting, you’ll have some type of system.
Most people watch horse racing because they want to win their bet. Deep down, they don’t have much interest in the actual horse or the conditions that surround the race. Think about this: how many people do you know that can turn on a horse race and just watch it like you might watch a college football or baseball game. And, that’s how the industry works. The industry needs bettors, relies on bettors to survive. If you went to the track, paid a nominal admission and just watched, the sport would suffer even more than it already does/
Obviously, there are some races that people can watch without a wager. The Kentucky Derby is certainly one of them. You may be at a party and the race may be on in the background and for that two plus minutes, you’ll tune it and watch. Believe it or not, there are some people that do watch horse racing simply because they like horse racing. I would put myself in that category, but I know all too well that I don’t have much company here.
If you’re not wagering, what does one look for in a horse race? The things I love about the sport include breeding and pedigree. I enjoy researching the bloodlines and trying to forecast how the son or daughter might do when they begin their racing careers. Another thing that interests me is what many call “Horses for Courses.” I enjoy seeing a California horse come east to see if they can adapt to a Belmont or a Pimlico and win a big race. And, the Breeder’s Cup is perfect for this. For the second straight year Santa Anita is the host and I’m curious to see if Princess of Sylmar can go from the east coast and put on a good show out west like she has so far this season.
Distance is another thing that is of high interest to me. I am very curious to see horses move up or in some cases move down in distance. Verrazano was a Kentucky Derby favorite. In 1 1/8 races, he did very well, in 1 ¼ races, he didn’t. He is scheduled to run the Dirt Mile, which should be a good distance for him. This is the stuff that intrigues me. You always hear things like, “this horse is a great horse, but can he get the distance?” In 2004, that was the concern about Smarty Jones. Bred to a miler, Smarty romped to wins in the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, but the skeptics worried that he wouldn’t get the 1 ½ distance at the Belmont and you know what? They were right.
Times and fractions are another thing that I love about horse racing and truth be told, it probably interests me the most. Last May, when I saw fractions of 22, 46 and 1:09 for the Kentucky Derby, I yelled aloud “suicide, too fast,” and a few other things, while my five guests looked at me like I had a third eye. At the Preakness, when Oxbow took them through three quarters in 1:13, I yelled, “they’re walking the dog,” and Gary Stevens was able to get Oxbow home with ease. At this week’s Breeder’s Cup, you will see all kinds of races at all kinds of distances from six furlongs to 1 ¾ miles on both dirt and turf.
Fractions are important in a race. You will hear the track announcer refer to them. They will give you the fractional times at the quarter mile, the half, and three quarters. Most don’t give the mile split time, but NBC will reveal it in the upper left hand corner of the screen. Timing is everything and the rule of 24 is a good rule to keep in the back of your mind. If the pace is slower than 24, then the horse on the lead might have a decent chance of winning. If it’s faster, then good luck.
Let’s take the Breeder’s Cup Classic as an example. Using the rule of 24, the lead horse should work the quarter in 24, the half in 48, three quarters in 1:12, the mile in 1:36 and the 1 ¼ in 2:00. Now, 2:00 for a 1 ¼ on dirt is exceptional and since 1875, only two horses have broken 2:00 in the Kentucky Derby; Secretariat ran 1:59.40 in 1973 and Monarchos 1:59.97 in 2000. In 2013, Orb won in 2:02.89 as every horse was spent at the end based on those way too fast fractions early on.
Let’s look at the 14 races and use the rule of 24, so as you watch and see the fractions, you can do thumbs up or thumbs down as they barrel around the Santa Anita oval. For turf races, the pace is often soft (horse term for slow) at the beginning and fast at the end, so you might see negative splits in those races. On the dirt, it’s usually the opposite, faster at the beginning, slower at the end.
Friday’s Races
Race 1: Marathon, Dirt, 1 ¾ miles
Rule: 24, 48, 1:12, 1:36, 2:00, 2:24, 2:48
Note: Forget the rule here. The horses will crawl at the beginning at try to surge at the end. You might see 28 and 55, and a winning time in the 2:56 range.
Race 2: Juvenile Turf, 1 mile
Rule: 24, 48, 1:12, 1:36
Note: Should see times under the rule for every fraction, but they’ll all be struggling at the end. Winning time should be close to 1:36, but slightly under. These are 2 year old babies running here.
Race 3: Dirt Mile, 1 mile
Rule: 24, 48, 1:12, 1:36
Note: A great distance, you should see faster than rule splits, something like 22, 46, 1:09. 1:33.
Race 4: Juvenile Fillies Turf, 1 mile
Rule: 24, 48, 1:12, 1:36
Note: It’s easier to run on turf, so look for faster than rule fractions.
Race 5: Distaff, 1 1/8 miles on Dirt
Rule: 24, 48, 1:12, 1:36, 1:48
Note: This is the big race for the ladies and the field is small but stellar. Fractions should follow the rule closely and the winning time should be in the 1:48 to 1:49 range
Saturday’s Races
Race 6: Juvenile Fillies, 1 1/16 miles on Dirt
Rule: 24, 48, 1:12, 1:36, 1:42
Note: Unpredictable race with two year old gals, many going this distance for the first time. Look for faster than rule fractions, but by the mile, they might be gassing, but the winning time should be right around the 1:42 mark.
Race 7: Filly and Mare Turf, 1 1/8 miles
Rule: 24, 48, 1:12, 1:36, 1:48
Note: On turf with savvy ladies running. Winning time should be under the rule.
Race 8: Filly and Mare Sprint, 7 furlongs on Dirt
Rule: 24, 48, 1:12, 1:24
Note: This is where it gets interesting. It’s a sprint, so you know that they will be under the rule, but how much under? You might see 22, 44, 1:08 and a winning time of 1:21 if conditions are right.
Race 9: Turf Sprint, 6 ½ furlongs
Rule: 24, 48, 1:12, 1:18
Note: See above, only faster, maybe 22, 44, 1:07, 1:15.
Race 10: Juvenile, 1 1/16 miles on Dirt
Rule: 24, 48, 1:12, 1:36, 1:42
Note: Once again, two year olds with prep races of no more than a mile, but these are talented colts and they should be under the rule.
Race 11: Turf, 1 ½ miles
Rule: 24, 48, 1:12, 1:36, 2:00, 2:24
Note: The classic turf distance and these horses can get that distance. They’ll probably be over the rule early, but close to rule late. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 25, 50, 1:15, then 1:37, 2:02, 2:27, which happens often on turf.
Race 12: Sprint, 6 furlongs, Dirt
Rule: 24, 48, 1:12
Note: Under rule, just how much under. If see a 21 for the quarter, yell and get excited.
Race 13: Mile, on Turf
Rule: 24, 48, 1:12, 1:36
Note: A classic turf distance, a classic turf race, should be under the rule.
Race 14: The Classic, 1 ¼ miles on Dirt
Rule: 24, 48, 1:12, 1:36, 2:00
Note: We know that in the end, they won’t be under the rule, but what will the early fractions be like. My guess is that they’ll be pretty close to rule and I’m rooting for a winning time in the 2:01 to 2:02 range. If it’s 2:03 or slower, I’ll be disappointed that they didn’t follow the rules.
So there it is my quirky, unconventional guide to watching the Breeder’s Cup. I hope your picks do well and that you make tons of money, but I also hope that you follow the rules, pay attention to the rules, and adhere to the rules.
It will be a great day for the great sport.