Reading Between the Lines with Bob Baffert

Bob Baffert is the essence of cool. The great white hair, the designer shades, the younger wife. He appears to be a man that has it all. I recently attended, for lack of a better word, a symposium on the eve of the Saratoga meet, and trainer Gary Contessa said that if you like old school, you have to like Baffert. He trains like legendary old school guy Woody Stephens who believed that horses are better off racing, not sitting and waiting for weeks and months.

Baffert’s prize is the Triple Crown champion American Pharoah. We all know how great the three-year-old son of PioneeroftheNile is. On Sunday, Baffert went back to a place that he knows and loves and that is Monmouth and the Haskell. He has been the winning trainer of this race eight times, including last year with Bayern. Bayern would go on to win the Breeder’s Cup Classic albeit in controversial manner.

The Pharoah toyed with the other six horses. I’ve seen some great horses but no horse can change speeds as good as this one can. He can go out and rate. He can speed up and then after he gets what he wants, can slow the pace down and keep the others at bay. In the Haskell, he stayed right near Competitive Edge through good fractions of 23.00, 46.14 and 1:09.60. He then swept to the lead, opened an eight length lead and then shut it down. His final time was 1:47.95, but it could have been 1:46 flat had he actually run the last 220 yards.

After the race, speculation ran rampant as to where American Pharoah will run next. Baffert won’t tell us, but he knows. In fact, he tells us by what he says and doesn’t say. Those that live on the West Coast think Baffert should run American Pharoah in his home state of California at Del Mar. Saratoga is the oldest race course in America with the most prestigious race of the summer, the Travers. Many think that an appearance at the Spa is a must for a great horse.

The key to all this is to listen to what Baffert says. He says that right now, it doesn’t make sense to run against older horses. That means the Pacific Classic, slated for August 22 at Del Mar is out. The same goes for the Woodward Stakes on September 5 at Saratoga.

Baffert says that Saratoga’s track is gimmicky and that it’s important for a horse to run there before a big race. That means the Travers is out. Baffert hasn’t had much luck in the Travers, although he won it impressively with Point Given in 2001. And, as everybody knows, Point Given suffered an injury in that race and was retired. Last year, Baffert won the Haskell with Bayern, then sent the colt to the Travers where he finished 10th. Bottom line–he is not coming to Saratoga to run in the Midsummer Derby.

So, where are we? No need to run against older horses. No love for the gimmicky track at Saratoga. I would like to see American Pharoah run against older horses now. The Woodward would be a perfect race for him. It’s a month away and it’s a quality race. But, it’s at that gimmicky track, thus it’s a no.

Monmouth Park had a record crowd of 61,000 plus to see Pharoah jog to victory and track organizers have said that they will put together another $1 million race in September to lure him back for an encore. Nothing wrong with Monmouth Park doing that. They are a running a business and they know that there is a thing called star power. The country waited 37 years for a Triple Crown winner, so capitalize now or be damned.

This conjures up memories of what New Jersey racing did in 1985 when they created the Jersey Derby to lure Kentucky Derby winner Spend a Buck. It worked as the handlers of the colt skipped the Preakness to run at Garden State Park in the aforementioned Jersey Derby. That didn’t go over well with the purists and it resulted in Visa coming up with a $5 million bonus if a horse won the Triple Crown. They had a consolation prize of $1 million for a horse that ran in all three races and had the best average finish. So, you see, New Jersey, a state that likes to gamble, has done this kind of stuff before.

Money is money, but does it make sense for Pharoah to come back to Monmouth and run again? Would the crowd exceed 61,000 in September with football in full swing? What would the race be called, and would it be a one-and-done affair?

I expect the next race for the future Horse of the Year will be in Bensalem, Pennsylvania at the Pennsylvania Derby on September 19. It fits Baffert’s hinted criteria. It’s not against older horses. It’s not at a gimmicky track. It allows him to stay in class against 3 year old horses, giving him the opportunity to beat up on them some more. And, yes, there is financial incentive for the connections.

Parx Racing offers $50,000 for winning a Triple Crown race, and as we know, Pharoah won three of them, meaning the connections get $150,000 just for entering. Parx also stated that it would pay out another $50,000 for a horse that wins the Travers or the Haskell. That gives Team American Pharoah $200,000 for coming to Parx on the third Saturday in September. And, it’s perfect for the colt. He’ll have seven weeks off between the Haskell and Pennsylvania Derby and another six before the Breeder’s Cup Classic.

And, let’s not forget what happened last year. Baffert won the Haskell with Bayern, then took him to Parx, won the Derby, beating California Chrome in the process. Chrome, because he won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness collected $100,000 for coming to Parx and Bayern picked up 50k for his Haskell win in addition to the $600,000 for winning the PA Derby. The formula worked for Baffert last year, why wouldn’t it in 2015? And, there are rumors that Parx may throw in an extra bonus for a “horse that wins the Triple Crown.”

My math skills have never been good, but American Pharoah might receive $300,000 for just showing up to Parx. The purse, currently $1 million could be increased to not only lure Baffert and Pharoah, but other horses, too. Second place is worth 20 percent of the overall purse. Think about Keen Ice in the Haskell. He was second best, but his connections pocketed $350,000, which is $150,000 more than a $1 million purse and just slightly less than what Texas Red ($360,000) received for winning the $600,000 Jim Dandy at Saratoga on Saturday, August 1.

Baffert has said that he doesn’t want his colt to lose before the Breeder’s Cup Classic and as much as he wants to protect him, if the goal is the Breeder’s Cup Classic, then he needs another race. There are good races in California; there are some pre-Breeder’s Cup stakes races at Keeneland, the site of the BC and there is tradition at Saratoga and Del Mar. A case can be made for each track and each race. But, to me, there isn’t much doubt. The colt and his connections will take seven weeks off and then head to Parx for the (I’ll predict) $1.5 million Pennsylvania Derby. If all goes well there, a six week break, the Breeder’s Cup Classic and then off to the stud farm.

Last year, Parx had over 16,000 on its Derby Day (there is also the $1 million Cotillion for 3 year old fillies and the $300,000 Gallant Bob Stakes). The track handle was over $10 million and there is the Parx Casino right across the street. Imagine what would happen if American Pharoah showed up? The crowd would surely increase, the handle could double to the delight of all. And, Baffert left Parx last year smiling so why wouldn’t he come back there for an encore.

Until next time.